Like any responsible adult, I watch the nightly news and I hear the daily reports of drone strikes, IED explosions, failed attempts here, failed attempts there. I have to wonder, we’re up against such a truly devious foe, why don’t they evolve?
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t mean this as a how to. But at the moment groups like Al Qaeda are more like a herpes infection than a devious adversary. We’re fed the line that if we don’t stamp out grumpy people then grumpier people will fill the void. Guess what? That’s going to happen anyway.
The lack of evolution in their tactics suggests that their command structure truly has been distorted, if not broken. Consider that the main domestic threats communicated to the American people continue to be:
- Threats to airplanes
- Threats to New York City
- Threats to landmarks on holidays
Call me crazy, but if I’m going to rob a bank, I’m not going to use the most heavily fortified door as my means of entry. So why are these these still the main targets that we hear about? Sure, occasionally the TSA in conjunction with XYX as part of a joint effort of the PDQ catches some guy trying to light his underwear on fire on a plane, but that’s about it. Granted there may be more that gets caught/prevented before it makes the news, but I seriously doubt the number of incidents is really that high. Any governmental agency is eager to justify it’s budget in the eyes of the American people, and therefore would happily crow about successes.
Which brings me back my original question, why haven’t the tactics changed? The most insidious threat to US soldiers has been the IED, effectively a coffee can full of nails and some form of explosive. This has been the most effective tactic employed, so why aren’t there phantom road crews “filling potholes” on main roads in the interior of the country? Why aren’t there fake road crews “repairing” bridges? Most of the bridges in the US are in disrepair anyway, I can’t imagine it would take much to create a disruptive hole during rush hour traffic.
Why are major landmarks still targets? Sure, it’s showy to take down a skyscraper, but it’s just as effective to take out a nursery school in Kansas. Using large scale targets only inconveniences honest people with heightened security. Make them scared to go get their morning caffeine fix at Dunkin Donuts, now you’ve got their attention.
Someone might chime in that in the FBI we have one of the world’s best explosives forensics teams, and that may be true. If I were to buy C4, detonators, and a triggering switch, I imagine they’d find me pretty quickly. I assume if I bought 55 gallon drums, nitrogen laced fertilizer and a hundred gallons of diesel, that would set off some bells. But what if you get 6 people to buy each of the ingredients of a lesser bomb on their own then combine them? There’s no pattern to catch, there’s no warning, there’s just a mess. So while we have one of the best teams to go in after the fact, on a preventive level there’s not much they can do to stop a more intelligent attack. It’s the lack of an intelligent attack that we’ve yet to see.
Let’s hope they never wise up.